Analysis: A Second Blow to Oil Markets Set to Devastate Global Economy
Release time:
Apr 14,2026
U.S. media outlets have pointed out that U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement to blockade the Strait of Hormuz risks not only a prolonged military standoff with Iran but also inflicting severe damage on an already strained global oil market and the economies of numerous countries.
According to analysts cited by The Wall Street Journal, while the U.S. military possesses the capability to enforce a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining control over this narrow waterway adjacent to Iran's coast would face severe threats from naval mines, drones, and fast-attack craft. Notably, over 60% of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' fast-attack vessels remain fully operational. This blockade has effectively become a high-stakes war of attrition, testing the resilience of both Tehran and global markets.
Iran's current disruption of the Strait of Hormuz has already delivered a significant shock to the global economy. Factories across Asia have been forced to curtail production due to energy shortages, with some gas stations imposing fuel rationing. Aviation fuel supplies at numerous airports in Asia and Europe are rapidly depleting, and inventory restoration is expected to take months.
Economic losses for Gulf nations have reached their worst levels in a decade. Capital Economics, an economic research firm, forecasts that Qatar's gross domestic product (GDP) will contract by 13% this year, while the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia will shrink by 8% and 6.6% respectively. "I don't believe the rest of the world is prepared for the reality of a protracted conflict. We are already seeing pain and damage," stated Mr. Zimba, a senior fellow at a Washington-based think tank.
The blockade would further exacerbate global oil supply-demand tensions. Researcher Johnston calculated that the conflict has already disrupted approximately 13 million barrels of daily oil production in the Gulf region, accounting for 12% of the global market. Should the U.S. successfully cut off Iran's remaining oil exports of roughly 2 million barrels per day, oil prices are certain to surge dramatically.
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